The Political Crisis in Rivers State: A State Gravitating towards Anarchy and Lawlessness
By Toba Alabi
Introduction
Rivers State, a major economic hub in Nigeria, has long been plagued by political instability. Over the past two decades, it has witnessed a series of power struggles that have hindered governance, disrupted development, and heightened insecurity. The root of this crisis can be traced back to the rivalry between former governors Rotimi Amaechi and Nyesom Wike, which has now evolved into a fierce battle between Wike and his successor, Siminalayi Fubara. At the center of this conflict is the pervasive influence of godfatherism, which has crippled democratic institutions. The crisis has spilled over into the Rivers State House of Assembly, where Wike controls the majority, creating a factional divide that has further destabilized governance. This article examines the history of the crisis, the influence of godfatherism, its adverse effects on the state, and the potential role of federal intervention.
The Origins: Amaechi and Wike's Power Struggle.
The political troubles in Rivers State began with the intense rivalry between Rotimi Amaechi and Nyesom Wike. Amaechi, who served as governor from 2007 to 2015 under the People's Democratic Party (PDP), initially had Wike as his Chief of Staff and a key political ally. However, their relationship soured when Amaechi defected to the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2013, leaving Wike behind in the PDP.
The 2015 governorship election became a battleground for both men. Amaechi supported Dakuku Peterside of the APC, while Wike ran as the PDP candidate. The election was marred by violence, widespread allegations of rigging, and bitter exchanges between the two camps. Wike emerged victorious, and his tenure marked the beginning of a long-standing political feud with Amaechi that would shape the state's political landscape.
Wike and Fubara: The New Crisis
Wike's eight-year tenure as governor saw him consolidate his influence over Rivers State politics, building a formidable power base within the PDP. Ahead of the 2023 governorship election, Wike backed Siminalayi Fubara, a former accountant-general, as his successor. Initially, Fubara was seen as Wike's loyal protégé, and his victory in the gubernatorial election seemed to solidify Wike's control over the state.
However, tensions soon emerged as Fubara sought to assert his independence from his predecessor. This shift was viewed as a betrayal by Wike, who had expected Fubara to govern under his influence. The rift between the two has since escalated, leading to a full-blown political crisis. Wike's efforts to maintain control over the state through political maneuvering and his majority hold over the Rivers State House of Assembly have further complicated the situation.
Godfatherism: The Root Cause of the Crisis
At the heart of the Rivers State political crisis is the entrenched system of godfatherism. In Nigerian politics, godfatherism refers to the practice where powerful political figures sponsor candidates for elective positions and expect loyalty in return. Wike, having played the role of godfather to Fubara, expected his successor to continue his legacy and remain under his control. However, like many other godfather-protégé relationships in Nigerian politics, the arrangement quickly broke down when Fubara attempted to assert his authority.
This pattern of political power plays has become a hallmark of Rivers State politics. Amaechi's fallout with Wike followed a similar trajectory. The result is a continuous cycle of political instability, where governance is secondary to personal vendettas and power struggles. The godfather-protégé dynamic has weakened the democratic process in Rivers State, eroding public confidence in leadership and creating an environment ripe for political unrest.
Impact on the Rivers State House of Assembly: Wike's Majority and Factionalism.
One of the most damaging aspects of the current political crisis is its impact on the Rivers State House of Assembly. The Assembly is deeply divided along factional lines, with the majority of lawmakers remaining loyal to Wike. In the ongoing political crisis in Rivers State, there are currently two factions within the State Assembly. The group loyal to Nyesom Wike comprises 27 members who defected from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC). Meanwhile, Governor Siminalayi Fubara is supported by a separate faction out of the 32 members in the House.
With Wike's faction dominating the House, the Assembly has become an instrument of political control rather than a body that serves the interests of the people. The pro-Wike legislators have actively worked to undermine Governor Fubara's efforts to govern independently, using their majority to block key initiatives and policies. On the other hand, Fubara's faction, though small, has fiercely resisted Wike's attempts to maintain control over the legislative process, further exacerbating the political deadlock.
This division has resulted in a paralysis of governance. Legislative functions have stalled, and critical bills, such as the state budget and security reforms, have been delayed or blocked entirely. The Assembly's dysfunction has also allowed the executive arm of the state government to operate without effective oversight, undermining the rule of law and fostering an environment of impunity.
Consequences for Rivers State: Lawlessness and Economic Decline
The political crisis in Rivers State has had far-reaching consequences, most notably in the areas of governance, security, and the economy. The ongoing power struggle between Wike and Fubara has distracted the government from its core responsibilities, leading to a breakdown in the provision of public services. Infrastructure projects have stalled, while critical sectors such as health, education, and security have been neglected.
Moreover, the political instability has created a power vacuum, which has been exploited by criminal elements. Rivers State has long been plagued by violent crime, including kidnappings, armed robbery, and militancy. The political crisis has only exacerbated the insecurity, with political thugs and cultists taking advantage of the chaos to further their criminal activities. In some instances, these criminal groups are believed to have been co-opted by the rival political factions, further blurring the line between politics and criminality.
Economically, Rivers State is suffering. As one of Nigeria's major oil-producing states, Rivers is critical to the country's economy. However, the political instability has deterred investors, both domestic and foreign, from engaging in the state. With the state government in disarray, key infrastructural projects aimed at improving the state's economy have been delayed or abandoned. The result is a growing sense of uncertainty and fear among the state's residents, who are increasingly losing confidence in the ability of the political class to govern effectively.
Tinubu's Intervention and the Role of the Federal Government
President Bola Tinubu's intervention in the Rivers State crisis is seen as a critical step towards de-escalating tensions. Tinubu, who appointed Wike as a minister in his administration, has sought to mediate between the former governor and Fubara in a bid to restore political stability. However, Tinubu's efforts face significant challenges. Wike remains a formidable political figure with deep roots in the PDP, while Fubara, though relatively new to politics, has the constitutional authority of the governorship behind him.
Tinubu's intervention is further complicated by his own political interests. As president, he must balance the need to maintain stability in Rivers State with the risk of alienating key political allies. There is also the question of whether Tinubu, as an APC president, can effectively mediate a conflict between two PDP heavyweights without being accused of political bias.
State of Emergency: The Ultimate Solution?
Given the deteriorating situation in Rivers State, some political analysts have called for the federal government to declare a state of emergency. Such a move would involve dissolving the state executive and legislative arms and temporarily placing the state under federal control. This would allow for a neutral administration to restore order, address the security challenges, and put the state on a path to stability.
A state of emergency could also provide an opportunity to address the systemic issues that have plagued Rivers State for years, including the role of godfatherism in politics and the abuse of power by political elites. However, declaring a state of emergency is a drastic measure that could inflame tensions, particularly if it is seen as an attempt by the APC-led federal government to impose its will on a PDP-controlled state.
Conclusion
Rivers State is at a critical juncture. The ongoing political crisis, fueled by godfatherism and power struggles, has brought governance to a standstill and plunged the state into lawlessness. The split in the Rivers State House of Assembly, where Wike's faction holds a decisive majority, has further deepened the crisis, paralyzing legislative functions and undermining the rule of law.
While President Tinubu's intervention offers some hope for resolving the crisis, the complexity of the situation requires a more robust and long-term solution. A state of emergency, though controversial, may be the only way to restore order and put Rivers State back on the path to political and economic stability. Without decisive action, Rivers risks descending further into anarchy, with dire consequences for its people and Nigeria as a whole.
Toba Alabi is Professor of Political Science and Defence Studies.
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